In the environment of the domestic market first rising and then the international market demand is rapidly released, China's sewing machinery industry maintains a high growth trend in general. It is a general trend to predict the continued decline in the growth rate of industry development in 2012. Facing the dual pressure of weak demand and rising costs, we will take the product quality improvement project as the starting point, grasp the law of market economy development, and actively change the growth mode. The guiding principles and efforts to accelerate the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading will become the top priority of the year.

Judging the situation.

Facing stressed "Internal and external"economy, and continiously macroeconomic downward pressure.

From the international situation, as the deep-seated impact of the financial crisis has not been completely eliminated, the European sovereign debt crisis has spread from marginal countries to core countries, and economic growth has stagnated and is likely to decline. The US sovereign debt burden is heavy. At the end of December 2011, the balance of government bonds has exceeded the GDP of the year, and consumer demand is weak. The turmoil and chaos in West Asia and North Africa will continue and spread, while emerging and developing economies will face inflationary pressures and the economic growth will continue to fall. According to international agency forecasts, the global economic growth rate in 2012 will be reduced from 3.8% in 2011 to 3.4%. Among them, the US and Japan both increased by 2%, and the Eurozone only increased by 0.2%. World trade will fall from 5.6% in 2011 to 3.6%, and there is likely to be zero growth. Therefore, the dynamics of the world economic recovery in 2012 have been significantly weakened, and the economic downside risks have increased. It is expected to continiously maintain a low-speed growth pattern. As the global economy and trade growth slow down, international trade protection and exchange rate disputes will intensify and the export situation will be severe.

　　From the domestic situation, driven by the implementation of the national “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, expanding domestic demand, upgrading consumption structure, accelerating urbanization and industrialization, and regional industrial transfer will provide long-term impetus for China's economic growth. However, the problem of imbalanced economic structure in China is still quite prominent. There are potential market risks in the fields of finance and real estate. The pressure of rising domestic factor costs is increasing, the profitability of enterprises tends to decline, the export situation is severe, and external demand continues to be sluggish. Even the downturn will be inevitable. As the pressure of a moderate increase in CPI still exists, domestic demand growth will also decline to a certain extent.

According to the forecast of relevant institutions, China's economy will maintain growth of around 8.7% in 2012, and CPI will rise by about 4%. In the face of the complicated and ever-changing international and domestic economic situation, the central government has clearly stated that the 2012 policy of steady development of economic development will continue to adopt a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to increase the real economy as well as small and micro enterprises.

According to the comprehensive analysis and the weakness of external demand and the lack of domestic demand, China's economy will face greater downward pressure in 2012.

"Up and down" squeeze, the industry chain is down

In terms of steel, in 2011, China's steel prices began to fall sharply from the steady operation at the beginning of the year to mid-July. After just over a month, the price of steel fell by more than 600 yuan per ton, and it is still at a low level. In 2012, the global economic situation is still grim, and the economic growth momentum is insufficient. The growth rate of domestic infrastructure construction investment and industrial production will also slow down, compared with that in 2011, and the growth of steel demand will also slow down. Therefore, industry experts generally believe that China's steel consumption has entered the stage of "high consumption, low growth". It is expected that the growth rate of China's crude steel output will fall back to around 5% in 2012, and steel prices will generally weaken, showing a trend of first suppression and then rising.

In terms of non-ferrous metals, due to factors such as the continued deterioration of the European debt crisis in 2011, the overall price level of domestic non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend. As China will continue to adopt policies to curb inflation in 2012, the slowdown in economic growth and the turmoil in financial markets will lead to a decline in the growth of non-ferrous metals such as copper and a decline in investment demand. It is expected that in 2012, the price trend of major non-ferrous metal products in the domestic market will be weaker than that of the international market, and the price will continue to decline on the basis of 2011.

Affected by the slowdown in world economic growth, the continued appreciation of the renminbi, the large fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as cotton, and the rising labor and energy costs, the production and sales of the textile and garment industry grew steadily in 2011, but the growth rate declined month by month. difficult. According to a recent survey of the operation of Guangdong's garment industry by relevant institutions, after the Lantern Festival in 2012, 38% of garment enterprises indicated that recruitment is “extremely difficult”, 32% of enterprises reported that it is difficult to recruit workers, and 14% of enterprises reflected The rework of old employees is not ideal. In terms of production, the average operating rate of garment enterprises is around 70%, and the lack of work is more than 30%. On the order side, 20% of the companies indicated that the orders were abundant, and 80% of the companies indicated that the orders still had certain guarantees but only maintained the first quarter. It can be seen from the above data that the garment industry will continue to maintain a low-speed growth or a gradual downward trend in 2012 due to insufficient work, shortage of labor and lack of orders.

In the international market, due to the complete industrial chain and advanced technology level of China's textile and garment industry, the advantages in international competition still exist. It is expected that the growth rate of textile and apparel exports in 2012 will not be lower than the growth rate of international trade in the same period. In the domestic market, with the continuous deepening of national reform and macro-control work, the domestic economy will maintain steady growth, and domestic textile and apparel consumption will continue to grow. The growth rate is expected to be basically the same as in 2011. Taking into account the pressure of inflation, the people's spending power is suppressed, the low external demand pushes exports to domestic sales, and the market outlook is uncertain. In 2012, the apparel industry adjusted production capacity, controlled inventory, and concentrated more resources on market segments. The layout marketing network may become an important task for enterprise development.

After the first suppression, the sewing machine industry structure adjustment remains in the market. 

In 2012, affected by the spread of the European and American credit crisis, the political turmoil in West Asia and North Africa, the slowdown in economic growth in emerging economies, and weak global consumption, the export situation of China's sewing machinery industry is facing greater uncertainty and downside risks. Domestically, due to the lack of overall employment and the shift of orders in the apparel industry and the difficulty of recruiting workers, the cost of labor has risen sharply, and the continued appreciation of the renminbi has further weakened the profitability of enterprises. In 2012, the overall growth of the apparel industry was weak, and it was difficult to form effective demand, which made the domestic market difficult to improve. In addition, the pressure on the domestic sewing machinery industry, such as rising costs, high inventory, and shrinking market, is deepening. A new round of market competition and structural adjustment will be inevitable. Enhancing product added value and accelerating transformation and upgrading are still the main theme of development. .

In terms of parts production, in 2012, it is expected that the continuous increase in labor costs will also lower the profitability of enterprises to a certain extent. With the slowdown of the production pace of enterprises and the gradual development of technological transformation of enterprises, the level of equipment automation and production efficiency will be further improved, the application scope of automated processing line operation mode will be expanded, and the difficulty of employment will be alleviated. Due to weak market demand, the total production and sales volume and production growth will be significantly lower than that of 2011. The order completion rate is expected to be close to 100%, and the balance of supply and demand of parts or oversupply will be repeated.

In terms of production of the whole machine, due to the gradual decline of external demand and the downturn in the domestic market, the production and sales situation in 2012 was more severe. Due to the large inventory in the early period, in order to maintain the normal production and personnel stability of the enterprise, the destocking in the first quarter of 2012 was not obvious. As the pressure on capital increases, it is expected that market competition will intensify in the second quarter, and the price of conventional products will show a significant decline.

In the second half of the year, with the gradual improvement of the domestic and international economic situation, the complete destocking of the whole machine is basically completed, production demand is expected to be gradually released, production and sales will increase by a large margin compared with the first half of the year, and the proportion of production of mechatronic products will be further improved. It is expected that the production of the whole machine in 2012 will show a development trend of first suppression and then promotion.

Based on the above situation, the economic development of the industry in 2012 is not optimistic. It is expected that the annual growth rate of production and sales of the industry will fall back to 5%, and the annual growth rate of total output value will remain around 10%-12%. With the increase in the proportion of mechatronic products and the improvement of product quality, the trend of increasing industrial value will become more and more obvious. It is expected that the output of electronically controlled sewing machines will maintain an increase of more than 30%.

The right solutions. 

In 2012, the industry's economic growth rate has continued to fall, and become a fixed trend. The project of product quality improvement and the task of speeding up the transformation and upgrading of the industry are urgent. In the face of two-way squeeze of weak demand and rising costs, the pressure on industry development has increased significantly.

Enterprises should correctly understand and grasp the law of market economy development, firmly develop confidence, actively change the growth mode, strengthen fund management and effective deployment, enhance the awareness of risk prevention, and maintain stable and healthy development of enterprises in accordance with the guidelines of the country's steady progress.

To this end, the measures to be taken have a good response.

Accelerate product structure adjustment and improve development level All sewing machinery manufacturers should fully understand the important role of technological innovation in product structure adjustment, strengthen research on market demand, further increase scientific research input and resource allocation, and accelerate the upgrading of old products. Progress in the development of new generations and new products. Through effective product structure adjustment, the company will improve the profit level and development space of the enterprise and better meet the needs of the development of the sewing machinery market.

Accelerate product quality improvement and enhance market competitiveness

The industry should further improve the industry standard system and quality management system, accelerate the formulation and implementation of some industry foundations, methodologies and general technical conditions standards, actively introduce relevant advanced technologies and external resources, and accelerate the construction of comprehensive product testing platforms for industry products. Improve the overall product quality assurance of the industry; accelerate the improvement of industry quality and the implementation of catch-up projects, actively carry out technology and process innovation, conscientiously implement various rectification and improvement measures, and achieve effective improvement of product quality.

Strengthen management innovation and improve cost control

Actively explore new modes of enterprise development, accelerate the transformation of enterprise development methods, strengthen the training and internal and external exchanges of enterprise management personnel, especially senior management personnel, and continuously introduce new ideas and concepts for management, and actively carry out the guiding ideas of green and sustainable development. Various types of management innovation activities, strengthen enterprise cost control, continuously reduce the resource consumption ratio of output value, and improve the overall competitiveness of the industry.

Consolidate the results of market order and deepen the cooperation of industry chain

The China Sewing Association plays an active role in leveraging the existing platforms and channels of the industry to increase communication and communication between industries, guide industry self-discipline, and maintain development order. At the same time, further strengthen the cooperation between the whole machine enterprises, parts and components, dealers and other supporting enterprises, strengthen the competitiveness of the whole industry chain through effective assistance, and build a true strategic partnership and an indestructible community of interests. Realize the common development of the industry.

Prepare the response plan and prevent adjustment risks.

In view of the large adjustment pressure and downside risks of the industry economy in 2012, enterprises in the whole industry should plan ahead and brainstorm ideas and make various response plans, such as raw material price fluctuation response plans, market demand response plans, corporate capital chain risk control plans etc. At the same time, enterprises should actively explore new business development models, accelerate the formation of various industrial chain alliances, actively carry out various types of capital operations and resource restructuring and integration, strengthen the overall industry's ability to resist risks, and ensure the continued healthy development of the industry.